What awaits the ruble in 2018? Nina Kozlova’s Comment for “Gazeta.ru”

Despite the ruble’s positive outcomes last year, there are new trials in 2018. The Russian currency will be under the pressure due to the possibility of new US sanctions and interventions by the Ministry of Finance in the currency market. As a result, the dollar can increase to 65 rubles. But ahead of March presidential election, the government will not let the ruble drop drastically according to experts.

Nina Kozlova

General Director of FinExpertiza

Among factors affecting the currency market, the key ones, in our opinion, will include energy prices, financial and economic situation in the country and domestic public policy. Due to OPEC+ deal extension, the ruble will face no pressure in this respect. However, with oil prices rising up, the other side of the coin is the increase in capital outflow putting pressure on the ruble depreciation.

The economy of the country with the weak ruble under sanctions began the gradual replacement of imported goods by domestic ones. Although our resource-based economy part benefits from the weak ruble, import substitution has a positive impact on the trade balance of the country and contributes to the ruble strengthening.

And of course, 2018 will be dominated by the presidential elections. Therefore, one of the country’s key tasks in the monetary policy will include the stability of the national currency or its strengthening, which is likely to be insignificant. Thus, according to our forecasts, the ruble exchange rate in 2018 will fluctuate in the range of 55-58 rubles per dollar.