The Ministry of Economic Development warned about a possible weakening of the ruble. Commentary from Nina Kozlova in Seychas.ru

According to the Ministry of Economic Development the imports of goods from non-CIS countries on average increases by 20% -25%. If this trend continues in the summer, then it is unlikely that the deficit in the balance of payments will be avoided. Such a situation can lead to a cheaper ruble in the summer months. This forecast was voiced by Maxim Oreshkin, Head of the Ministry of Economic Development in the interview to the TV channel "Russia 24".

Earlier, the agency predicted a weakening of the ruble to 63 rubles for 1 US dollar. In the case of the basic scenario on economic development, the ruble exchange rate may weaken to 68 rubles per dollar (already by the end of 2017). In the case of the target scenario on economic development, the dollar exchange rate will be the same by the end of 2017, i.e. 68 rubles, and by the end of 2018 it will reach 70.3 rubles.

Nina Kozlova

Nina Kozlova

-- The fall in the oil price to $ 40-45 per barrel possible in the case of OPEC refusal to extend the quotas for oil production in the second half of this year, is one of the key factors that will affect the weakening of the ruble.

Other factors include the external trade balance, the external debt of exporting enterprises and operations in stock markets.

For foreign investors, the ruble still shows very high profitability. The weaker the ruble, the more profitable carry trade operations are (with guaranteed yield).

For exporting enterprises, a strong ruble is profitable only in the short term, at the time of paying taxes to Russia, but for the rest of the time a weak ruble allows their products to be more competitive.

In addition, officials have repeatedly indicated the boundaries, beyond which strengthening of the ruble, in their opinion, is not desirable. Verbal intervention can also be attributed to factors influencing the change in the exchange rate of the ruble.