The GDP of Russia: what to expect in 2017? Commentary from Nina Kozlova for Seychas.ru

1.4% is an expected increase of the GDP of Russia in 2017. In 2018, the economic growth will be analogous according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Such forecasts are contained in the July review of the World Economic Outlook.

As for the global GDP, the IMF has forecasted the growth of 3.5% for the current year, 3.6% for the forthcoming year. The growth in global trade as to goods and services is believed to be increasing to 4% in 2017 (2.3% in 2016), and its decrease to 3.9% in 2018 is expected.

According to the IMF’s previous statement, the role of the government in the economy of Russia keeps increasing.

Nina Kozlova

General Director of FinExpertiza

- The analysis of ‘Rosstat’ data from January to May 2017 against the analogous period of the previous year shows an increase of 1.7% in the industrial production and the growth of 0.48% in the GDP. Retail trade turnover rose by 0.7% in May. However, it fell by 0.8% from January to May against the analogous period.

The real disposable income of the population from January to May also decreased by 1.8% in real terms as compared to the analogous period of 2016. As we see, some macroeconomic indicators are still in the negative growth zone. Nevertheless, the expectation that the crisis in the Russian economy will get fierce is gradually disappearing.

The market of lending to individuals got vital as well with its increase of 4.3% in May 2017 against the analogous period of 2016. Thus, the IMF forecasts for the GDP growth of 1.4% in Russia for the current year seem quite realistic.